Charting Retail: Temu, Shein, Retail Sales and Walmart

Here are some key trends we’ve been tracking over the past few weeks with accompanying charts below:

  1. Temu & Shein Turbulence: Sales for Temu and Shein dropped between 16% and 41% over a five-day period starting February 5, following the removal of a duty exemption on their small parcel shipments by the U.S. government. While the ban was later reversed, the sheer volume of Section 321 shipments remains a major force in cross-border eCommerce.

  2. Retail Sales Slowdown: January saw the steepest retail sales decline in two years, with a 0.9% dip (not adjusted for inflation). The likely culprit? Consumers maxing out credit cards in December after stronger-than-expected holiday spending. That said, auto sales, food & beverage/restaurants, and health & personal care stores were bright spots.

  3. Walmart’s Momentum: Walmart continues to outperform and gaining share in higher-income households, with an 83% stock gain over the past year. Its success is largely driven by Walmart+, an expanding 3P marketplace, and an aggressive pricing strategy (-11% vs. competitors). The retailer has also perfected its Wall Street messaging, further solidifying its position.